Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.390383 1.445880 1.503199 1.566992 1.636213 1.709288 1.792569
2026-01-04 1.336816 1.412597 1.493371 1.586406 1.691288 1.806704 1.944498
2026-01-11 1.282852 1.371182 1.467510 1.581334 1.713479 1.863781 2.050262
2026-01-18 1.243062 1.341329 1.450567 1.582506 1.739687 1.923883 2.160784
2026-01-25 1.192961 1.296274 1.412763 1.555803 1.729626 1.938171 2.214327
2026-02-01 1.159188 1.267885 1.392108 1.547093 1.739134 1.975028 2.296912
2026-02-08 1.128207 1.241025 1.371476 1.536530 1.744644 2.005842 2.372416
2026-02-15 1.099790 1.215803 1.351341 1.524992 1.747430 2.032196 2.442607
2026-02-22 1.081608 1.201888 1.343931 1.528335 1.768567 2.082831 2.549381
2026-03-01 1.050049 1.170615 1.313968 1.501648 1.748831 2.076805 2.573491
2026-03-08 1.024989 1.146439 1.291846 1.483863 1.739627 2.084060 2.616840
2026-03-15 1.004783 1.127563 1.275592 1.472797 1.738532 2.101970 2.676936
2026-03-22 0.995695 1.122570 1.277049 1.485439 1.770980 2.170456 2.824150
2026-03-29 0.990278 1.121842 1.283680 1.504889 1.813452 2.255924 3.007985
2026-04-05 0.975347 1.108626 1.273752 1.501558 1.823405 2.293294 3.114987
2026-04-12 0.963500 1.098930 1.267965 1.503430 1.840595 2.342399 3.247707
2026-04-19 0.941684 1.075958 1.244193 1.479728 1.819388 2.330112 3.267288
2026-04-26 0.927499 1.062433 1.232423 1.472143 1.821388 2.354445 3.357611
2026-05-03 0.913276 1.048513 1.219723 1.462748 1.820120 2.373165 3.438990
2026-05-10 0.899319 1.034621 1.206680 1.452382 1.816815 2.388114 3.514372
2026-05-17 0.891274 1.028191 1.203351 1.455511 1.833921 2.437763 3.666805
2026-05-24 0.873094 1.008160 1.181306 1.431255 1.807862 2.412551 3.657324
2026-05-31 0.858610 0.992736 1.165172 1.415067 1.793745 2.407134 3.690568